Preparing for the 2009 MLB Baseball season
Friday, April 3rd, 2009With the season starting in a couple of days, a breakdown of run line betting and a recap of the 2008 MLB baseball season in terms of runline betting is in order.
To those new to the site or new to run line betting, a runline is a type of baseball bet. Baseball bets usually come in 3 different types:
- Run Line - the run line is kind of like a football betting line, only in baseball games the line is always -1.5 for the straight up favorite, +1.5 for the straight up underdog.
- Money Line - the baseball money line bet is simply a bet on who will win the game.
- Over/Under - the over/under bet is a bet on how many runs both teams will score combined. This is often called a total as well.
Run Lines have gotten popular as a way to bet heavy favorites without having to risk large amounts of money. It is not uncommon to see the Boston Red Sox or the New York Yankees favored in the -200 to -300 range for a money line bet. At -300, you would have to wager $300 to win $100.
Here is an example of the relationship between the run line and money line. The last game of the World Series had a money line of
Philadelphia Phillies -165
Tampa Bay Devil Rays +155
and a run line of
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 +120
Tampa Bay Devil Rays +1.5 -140
So, betting on the Phillies to win straight up, you have to wager $165 to win $100. Betting on the Phillies to win by 1.5 runs (by 2 runs or more since there is no .5 run in a baseball game), you have to wager $100 to win $120.
The Phillies won the game 4-3, so the money line bet on the Phillies was a winner, but a run line bet on the Phillies was a loser as they only won by a run. Tampa Bay +1.5 is a winner as they lost by 1.
A couple of things to mention to new baseball bettors with this example in mind:
- You can see the juice or the vig or whatever you want to call the sportsbooks way to make money with both of these lines. If their was no juice you would see +165/-165 line on the money line. But, there is a $10 difference between the two. This is often called a “10 cent” line.
- You can see a $20 difference in the run line (-140/+120), and this is usually the norm that runlines have “20 cent” lines.
- Often times the underdog in a straight up line becomes the “favorite” in the runline, as seen by our example.
The stats below show the baseball teams records against the run line. Wins and Losses are against the run line. “$ On” indicates the amount you would be up or down if you bet $100 to win $xxx or $xxx to win $100, depending on if they were the favorite or the underdog. Conversly, “$ Against” indicates if you were to bet against that team every run line game.
Anything stand out here? Teams in bold made the playoffs, and I would assume that most of them would be on the top half of this chart. The Twins, Astros, Cardinals, and Marlins are a little surprising to me to be up that high. The Dodgers, Brewers, and Phillies being so low is very surprising.
Remember that home teams are generally going to be favored and giving -1.5 in exchange for +xxx odds. The Twins were very good at covering the spread as a home team, which is why they were so high up on the main chart. Also notice that 14 of the 30 teams showed a positive return for all games.
Remember here that road teams often are getting the extra 1.5 runs, but in exchange have to put up greater odds to get them. That is why the $ on category is so different for similar records between home and away. Also notice that only 8 teams showed a positive return on betting all road games.
That’s it for now. See you Sunday for opening day.
