A season of MLB baseball is a real grind. The old saying is that every team will win 54 games and lose 54 games; it’s what you do with the other 54 games that matters. Therefore, if you are planning on betting on baseball, you should be prepared to lose just as many games as you win.
There are several different ways that you can bet on baseball: Betting on the Runline (spread betting), betting on the Moneyline (straight betting), and betting on the Over/Under (totals betting). But, if you are really into baseball betting, you should have some sort of system for determining the most likely winners for whichever type of bet you are looking at wagering.
So what should you look for? Any system is only as good as your ability to find a good line based on team trends. I’ve seen other systems that aren’t based on actual trends during the season and they have failed miserably. For instance, there was one that was a road betting system. It claimed that any time that a team goes on a 6+ game road trip, you could bet on that team to win or lose or the total to go over or under.
During this road trip, you would place a 1 unit bet on the first game. If you win on your bet, your done betting for the road trip. If you lose, you will place a 2 unit bet; then a 4 unit bet if that loses. This will progressively become a larger bet until you have won that initial 1 unit bet that you were originally trying to win. The idea was that no team had gone 6 straight wins, loses, overs or unders during a road trip.
The system went 238-0 until the system failed. The idea of the system is that it wouldn’t fail. You had to have trust in the system in order to make the increasingly larger bet. Let’s say that the unit bet was $50; the 2nd bet would be $100, the 3rd bet would be $200, the 4th bet would be $400, the 5th bet would be $800, the 6th bet would be $1600. The system failed and dropped to 238-1 and a $3150 loss will chase anyone away.
Following the Trends
When I talk about following a trends, you will find that certain teams go on hot and cold streaks. You will want to look past the win-lose record and find the relevant stats that explain their streak. Is the combine ERA of the pitchers higher or lower than normal? Is the team batting average higher or lower than normal?
You will also want to look ahead in the schedule. A lot of streaks come to an predictable end when a cold team plays a bad team at home or a hot team plays a top tier team on the road. The idea isn’t to win every single game, because baseball is a weird game and unexpected things happen all the time. All you need to do is win about 60% of the games in order to make a profit (because of the juice paid).
You should also avoid betting on heavy favorites. As with the idea of a betting system that doesn’t take how the teams play into account, you can get into more trouble than it’s worth by betting on the Detroit Tigers to win on the Moneyline against the Kansas City Royals with Justin Verlander pitching. If you win, great - you didn’t win much; if you lose, it’s going to hurt your bankroll.
The last trend that I like to keep track of is how teams do as the underdog. This is the one place where I like to bet the Moneyline over the Runline. Some teams will play really well against the better teams that are heavy favorites. You should try to find underdogs that aren’t facing an Ace, however. A big underdog would be any team that is receiving 4 or more runs on the runline.