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Betting Systems in Baseball

February 8th, 2013

A season of MLB baseball is a real grind. The old saying is that every team will win 54 games and lose 54 games; it’s what you do with the other 54 games that matters. Therefore, if you are planning on betting on baseball, you should be prepared to lose just as many games as you win.

There are several different ways that you can bet on baseball: Betting on the Runline (spread betting), betting on the Moneyline (straight betting), and betting on the Over/Under (totals betting). But, if you are really into baseball betting, you should have some sort of system for determining the most likely winners for whichever type of bet you are looking at wagering.

So what should you look for? Any system is only as good as your ability to find a good line based on team trends. I’ve seen other systems that aren’t based on actual trends during the season and they have failed miserably. For instance, there was one that was a road betting system. It claimed that any time that a team goes on a 6+ game road trip, you could bet on that team to win or lose or the total to go over or under.

During this road trip, you would place a 1 unit bet on the first game. If you win on your bet, your done betting for the road trip. If you lose, you will place a 2 unit bet; then a 4 unit bet if that loses. This will progressively become a larger bet until you have won that initial 1 unit bet that you were originally trying to win. The idea was that no team had gone 6 straight wins, loses, overs or unders during a road trip.

The system went 238-0 until the system failed. The idea of the system is that it wouldn’t fail. You had to have trust in the system in order to make the increasingly larger bet. Let’s say that the unit bet was $50; the 2nd bet would be $100, the 3rd bet would be $200, the 4th bet would be $400, the 5th bet would be $800, the 6th bet would be $1600. The system failed and dropped to 238-1 and a $3150 loss will chase anyone away.

Following the Trends

When I talk about following a trends, you will find that certain teams go on hot and cold streaks. You will want to look past the win-lose record and find the relevant stats that explain their streak. Is the combine ERA of the pitchers higher or lower than normal? Is the team batting average higher or lower than normal?

You will also want to look ahead in the schedule. A lot of streaks come to an predictable end when a cold team plays a bad team at home or a hot team plays a top tier team on the road. The idea isn’t to win every single game, because baseball is a weird game and unexpected things happen all the time. All you need to do is win about 60% of the games in order to make a profit (because of the juice paid).

You should also avoid betting on heavy favorites. As with the idea of a betting system that doesn’t take how the teams play into account, you can get into more trouble than it’s worth by betting on the Detroit Tigers to win on the Moneyline against the Kansas City Royals with Justin Verlander pitching. If you win, great - you didn’t win much; if you lose, it’s going to hurt your bankroll.

The last trend that I like to keep track of is how teams do as the underdog. This is the one place where I like to bet the Moneyline over the Runline. Some teams will play really well against the better teams that are heavy favorites. You should try to find underdogs that aren’t facing an Ace, however. A big underdog would be any team that is receiving 4 or more runs on the runline.

The basics of sports betting

January 7th, 2013

baseball-bettingThe term ‘sports betting’ is an umbrella one used to describe wagering money on any sports apart from horse racing, with the most popular area of sports betting in many countries undoubtedly being baseball betting. This is not really surprising as baseball – especially the Major League – is one of the few leisure activities that can rival activities like online casino gambling for popularity these days, and baseball betting combines both of these activities. Although it has generally been associated with those who have a serious interest in sports, the potential rewards from sports betting make it worthwhile for anyone interested in earning money from gambling.

If you do not have a prior interest in any sports this does place you at a disadvantage when it comes to sports betting – because like other forms of gambling such as the online casino games in http://www.gamingclub.com/nz/ – you will gamble more successfully if you know something about the subject. This does not have to mean that you cannot participate however, just that you will need to do some research into your chosen sport; something any serious gambler will be prepared to do.

For those who have an interest in a particular sport, it makes sense to stick to this when starting sports betting. It is also advisable to start with quite small-scale bets, even if the long-odds ones look appealing, simply because these carry a far greater degree of risk and you do not want to suffer heavy losses when you are just trying to figure out the basics of sports betting. Once you have gotten more confidence you can start to consider larger scale bets.

When it comes to the type of sports betting to choose, most people opt for betting via a bookmaker – whether it is online or land-based, which means bets based on odds estimated by the bookie. You can then choose whether you want to make a calculated bet (picking the likeliest winner), or an emotional one (e.g. betting on your favourite team to win).

There are a lot of people that like sports betting. The best thing about baseball betting is that all you need is for a team to win and you win your bet at Oddsmaker.com, a great place for finding online betting odds in the MLB.

Sports Betting on Baseball

September 18th, 2012

Here are a couple of baseball betting tips that I have to give you that you can use when betting on the Run Line. My favorite betting technique is taking advantage of Round Robin betting.

The Round Robin

There are many different types of wagers when it comes to sports betting, especially when taking into account the great variety of sports people love to bet on. Baseball, football, basketball, hockey, horse racing, dog racing, NASCAR racing, soccer, Jai Alai, and even badminton.

Each game has its rules. Each game is played differently. There are individual sporting events and team sports. Sports betting on each sport is governed by a different set og rules, and a different set of possible wagers.

If you are sports betting on baseball, for example, there is what is called the Round Robin.

The Round Robin is a combination of all possible two-team parlays with the teams you have chosen. The sports bettor can choose from three to six teams in a Round Robin, from which a combination of two-team parlays is played.

The maximum risk in a Round Robin is calculated by multiplying the maximum number of parlays by the money amount the sports bettor wants for each two-team parlay. The maximum win is calculated by multiplying the win of one of the parlays by the total amount of parlays.

So, for example, if you pick a five-team, three-play Round Robin, 10 three-team parlays will be created.

As you can see sports betting on baseball is easy, especially with the Round Robin play.

Cut Your Losses

This is how you should have bet these three games, if the heavy favorites were all your choices: A parlay! Yeah, the odds are 7-1 against you picking all three, but the potential loss vs. the (approximate) profit is worth the play.

Let’s say you wagered $100 on these three favorites:

  1. Possible loss: $100
  2. Approximate win: $200

I rounded off the payoff but look at the bottom line. You’re getting a lousy payoff, but the risk is small.

You have three dynamite pitchers going for you but that doesn’t mean they can’t lose. If you persist in betting heavy favorites, use a parlay play, not flat, and not round robins.

If you had three games that were approximately pick-em, your payoff would be about 6-1. That means about $600 for your $100 wager. But as soon as you start betting the heavyweights, the payoff price comes down.

Then cut your losses by moving over to two or three team parlays.

Find out all you need to know about a mobile casino or the current big sports betting events. Check out an online casino that offers a sports book as well. This way you can bet on baseball games while being entertained with great games like blackjack and roulette.

Runline Betting Strategy

March 6th, 2012

The Betting Market is Efficient

There is common misconception in sports betting where many believe it is recreational bettors that control the betting market. This is entirely false, although a huge number of fans wager $20, $50, $200 and even $500 or $1,000 per game – there are people who make a living betting sports who wager $100,000+ on single MLB games.

The volume these guys put into betting far exceeds all the recreational bets combined. This is near proven fact, professional bettors control the market while bookies, and recreational betting sites profit on the recreational action that surrounds it. Now if you’re thinking this statement is neither here nor there your wrong. The understanding of the betting market is one the absolute best ways to profit from it. So allow to me explain further how things work.

Opening Lines

There are two online betting sites that service professional bettors which are the first to open up betting lines on a given game. The most relevant is www.pinnaclesports.com which doesn’t accept US players, while the other is www.bookmaker.eu which does accept US player – but is not the most favorable site for recreational players (that nod goes to **blah blah who offers blah***).

In any case to get back on topic, for MLB Baseball these two sites open the betting lines the afternoon for the next day’s games. When the lines first open they represent the opinion of just a small number of odds makers under contract with the betting sites.

What these sites do is keep the betting limits smaller than usual (for example $3,000 maximum bet). As they take bets in the early going they move the lines until they find a price smart money is no longer interesting in betting. Once they do this they increase the betting limits larger. If upon increasing the limits Yankees are -2.5 and large bets start coming in they’ll move the line to -3. If bet still keep coming in they’ll move the to -3.5.

Also worth mentioning is Pinnacle Sports has extremely advanced algorithm and moves the lines based on who is betting what when. What this means is they don’t move the lines because a well known fish they should be sending the limo for makes a bet. However when a savvy well known winner bets, the line will move.

Also it’s not always the point spread moving. Pinnacle will often just move the price such as -2.5 -104 to -2.5 -107 to -2.5 -109, then to -3 +101, to -3 -103 etc. Their algorithm works in such a way they find a price the largest and most successful bettors are no longer brining them lopsided action. Each time that point is reached the betting limits become larger.

Runline Betting

January 17th, 2012

The Runline is the baseball equivalent to a Point Spread that you will find in Football and Basketball. It declares one team a favorite and one team an underdog in a baseball game. Let’s say the runline is 1.5 runs; the favored team will have a -1.5 runline and the underdog will have a +1.5 runline.

Essentially, this means that the favored team has to win by 2 runs in order to win on a runline bet. If the underdog wins or loses by 1 run, that team will win on a runline bet. The runline is different then a moneyline. The moneyline is a bet on which team will win without a handicap. The difference is that the runline is always going to have the same odds. Usually, you will have to bet $110 to win $100 with the $10 extra is the juice that a sportsbook charges you for placing the bet.

If this seems a little bit confusing to you because you’re a beginner, it is important that you learn about sports betting before you start placing bets. The last thing you want to do is be confused about a bet that you are placing.

Point Spread Betting

Point spread betting is said to have been invented in the 1940’s by Charles K. McNeil of Chicago. He was a math professor who used it in his own bookmaking operation. Whether or not this true is irrelevant; today point spread betting is the most popular way to wager on America’s two most frequently wagered upon sports football and basketball. The basic idea behind a point spread is in order to make the game closer to a 50/50 proposition a handicap is added.

For example, the opening round of the 2011/12 NFL playoffs had Detroit Lions +10.5 / New Orleans Saints -10.5. How this works is if you wager on Lions at the end of the game you add 10.5 points to the Lions score and then compare it to Saints actual score to determine who wins. Alternatively if you bet on New Orleans Saints then at the end of the game you would subtract 10.5 points from the Saints score and then compare it with the actual Lions score to determine which team wins.

Important to note is that all point spread wagers also have a price. With most all bookies and Las Vegas sports books if the price is not otherwise stated then -110 is assumed (Risk $110 to win $100, which simplifies as $1.10 staked for every dollar you wish to win). This extra price you’re charged is referred to as vig or juice and is how the betting sites and bookies make their profit. When betting online you’ll find prices often are listed and they’re not the same for both sides. For example you might find Detroit Lions -115 / New Orleans Saints -105. The reason for the difference is that bookies strive to find 50/50 propositions on betting lines, but sometimes this isn’t possible as one side is slightly more likely to cover at that point spread than the other.

There a few things about point spreads worth noting. In cases where point spreads have half points involved (example -2.5 / +2.5) there is no way for the game to tie. Point spread don’t always use half points however. In times the point spread is a whole number if the game results in a handicap tie it is considered a push, also referred to as no action. In this case all bets are off and stakes are returned. Additionally I should conclude by informing while point spreads are most popular in football and basketball they are available for other sports as well. For example in hockey and baseball alternatives to the moneyline are offered called the puckline and runline which are bets that use a point spread.

Mobile Sports Betting

December 20th, 2011

Did you know that you can bet on baseball from your mobile phone? There are a lot of mobile betting sites that allow you to bet on all sports from around the world. For the most part, this is going to work a lot easier for people who live outside of the United States.

Sites like Bet365 offers players the option to bet on everything from baseball, basketball, football, soccer, UFC, hockey and many more. They also offer a mobile betting service that you can access through most smart phones that have been created in the past 3 years. Some of the features that Bet365 offers includes Live In-Play betting and all of the Premiere League and other European Football Leagues. However, Bet365 does not currently offer services the United States.

There are a couple of US mobile sports betting sites that you can check out. While the sites suggested aren’t actually designed for your smartphone, you can visit their normal website from your mobile device and place bets like you would be able to do with a computer.

Currently, this is the off-season for baseball leagues and there isn’t very much in the way of betting on baseball. There are a couple of offseason leagues such as the Caribbean Leagues and the Australian Baseball League. But, the betting on these games isn’t very popular and you won’t find these events at many of the online sportsbooks.

Because sports betting is completely legal over in England and most of the rest of the world, the sportsbooks in the UK will often have better features such as mobile services specifically designed for iPhones and Android. These mobile betting apps are proving to be a very big success.

If we take Bet365 for example, not only do they offer in-play betting, but if you are using a iPad, iPhone or Android, you can also watch the live sporting events using their mobile app. Other sports betting sites will offer services such as live radio commentary and previews/predictions for the big games of the day.

One other thing that you will find at European sportsbooks are free bets. These free bets are normally between £/€10 and £/€25 but Bet365 offers a very large £200 bonus when you make a £200 deposit. These free bets can be used to make almost any bet on a sporting events. Some of these matchups may be disallowed from use with the bonus if the odds are too heavily stacked. The reason that they do this is because picking the heavy favourites is an easy way to try to clear the bonus without risking much.